Europe experienced widespread relief on Monday, as the tension triggered by the introduction of a new 28-article proposal for ending the war appeared – temporarily – to have been contained. A senior US official spoke of "substantial progress" after Ukraine-US talks in Geneva. On Monday night, the Kremlin made its retaliation: a renewed assault of missile and drone strikes on Kyiv.
The Pattern of Diplomacy and Destruction
The chain of opposing developments captured the grim essence of the current period. By day, political struggles are conducted: hopeful statements are issued from different nations. Immense energy is expended on managing specific proposals. By night, the Kremlin clearly shows the world that, for them, war remains the primary tool for achieving "resolution".
Nocturnal Warfare
As Russia's attack developed into the early hours of Tuesday, the current condition of Ukraine's exposure was laid bare. Ukraine is able to track projectile deployments from Russian territory, a ability afforded by up-to-date information. From observation points, defense planes that had been dispatched to engage hostile cruise missiles roared overhead – advanced fighter aircraft delivered to Ukraine by Western partners.
Soon thereafter, Kyiv's anti-aircraft weapons engaged: several firings deployed against a incoming threat. This was a advanced protection mechanism at work, probably supplied through allied countries. Every launch jolts you unexpectedly, shaking the windows. The moment of terror quickly becomes grim resignation: perhaps the hostile projectile won't hit its mark this time, protecting urban areas from devastation and further power outages.
Ongoing Risks
Soon after, a large-caliber weapon fired at a aerial vehicle in the vicinity, part of a rapid response unit – most likely allied-provided weaponry. Regrettably, the projectiles didn't strike the opposing UAV – it pressed on overhead toward its objective.
Intermittently, this carried on until dawn. Kyiv greeted the daybreak reports: multiple fatalities, damage and utility failures in numerous residences as a result of the evening attack. As customarily, everyone still went about their day – experiencing conflict. But those full day demonstrated Ukraine's critical military reliance on Western support – a reliance that European nations are evidently unprepared to fill in the short term.
Failed Diplomacy
The detailed framework from Washington generated strong feelings, discussion and profound anxiety – and temporarily diverted attention from Ukraine's most significant graft case in years. Yet, we have witnessed similar scenarios, after earlier high-level meetings and multilateral gatherings.
Every new approach from American administration unfolds according to the same pattern: a negotiation push against Ukraine, which Kyiv, with other European capitals, effectively counters. They manage the tension but never actually achieve victory. This trend will, certainly, continue.
Strategic Calculations
It is easy to blame particular leaders of consistently pushing Kremlin's demands. But that does not seem to be the whole story. US administration works based on a assumption understood by international relations experts: you cannot secure via talks what you have failed to defend militarily. The US administration assumes that it is unrealistic to pressure the Kremlin to abandon the land that it already controls in Ukraine's southern or eastern regions.
The challenge is that while accepting these circumstances, US leadership does little to prevent Kremlin actions, through diplomacy or military means, from thinking that the situation will not evolve additionally in its advantage in the near future.
Opposing Positions
Therefore, Russian leadership is certain that the clock favors them – that Ukraine and its supporters are nearing depletion. Their motivation to accept conditions that does not give them the largest achievable advantage is close to zero. There may be multiple initiatives to stop fighting, but they will carry on as long as Russia's leadership remains supremely confident in the result.
On the contrary, Kyiv believes that Ukraine can still endure, progressively conceding lives and land but avoiding a complete military breakdown until conditions improve in its benefit.
Present Conditions
Objectively, there are no genuine requirements for a ceasefire. Now, personal considerations are coming into play: leadership ambitions to mediate resolution and secure international recognition, and the government's dual difficulties – on one hand, not to distance important partners, and on the other, to unite the population around the country's interests against any plan Kyiv finds unworkable, so that their priority does not move to internal issues. And although their mission will now be much harder after current events, it remains highly unlikely that this will modify their basic position.
These two forces are guiding negotiations.
Assessment and Future
It took a mere seven days to kill the suggested clauses of the most recent proposal. Aggressive and erratic handling of the matter by US administration, opposition by Ukraine and the other European countries, along with calming attempts of negotiators, and finally, current information leaks, all did their job.
While new initiatives based on previous concepts are imminent, Kyiv, London and other European capitals should reach an essential realization: Ukraine and Europe will only be able to resist political attacks from Washington that are founded on Moscow's terms and demonstrate particular unwillingness to modify developments, if they maintain solidarity and improve their protective measures at a much faster pace. If they do, neither external pressure nor military threats will be able to break them. In the meantime, Ukraine's capability to defend against evening bombardments will, for the foreseeable future, mainly require continued Western support.
