Ten years following the UK entered into a hurried referendum that divided the country and triggered turmoil, a advisory comes from across the Irish Sea: it might repeat.
Authorities and voters sleepwalked into Brexit and the same may happen with a national vote on a united Ireland, initiating convulsions for which nobody is ready.
That conveys the caution from two respected commentators from both sides of the Irish border who have joined forces to analyse the pros and cons of Northern Ireland leaving the UK to form a different country with the Republic of Ireland.
Administrative Institutions Unprepared
Fintan O’Toole and The Northern Ireland editor, have determined that the political establishments in Ireland and Britain are extremely unprepared for a possibly fraught and transformative public vote.
"The key takeaway of Brexit hasn't been learned, which is that stuff can arise suddenly and can gather momentum rapidly," the commentator remarked. "I would suggest that the institutional structure of our region remains extremely volatile."
New Title Intends to Stir Debate
The team have analysed the political, financial and societal arguments for any constitutional change in a publication, Examining Irish Unification, released by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.
They aim to provoke discussion on the topic with a tour of lectures that will take them to Westminster early next month.
"What concerns everyone, or must worry everybody, is the Brexit vote of 2016," commented O’Toole.
"We must avoid a referendum on a thumbs up-thumbs down, ambiguous question whose results have not been clarified because then you find yourself with an highly divided society where people who have lost are not reconciled to defeat and the victorious side don't know precisely what it is that they have gained."
Legal Framework
Under the peace accord, the Northern Ireland government minister should call a referendum on Irish unification if it appears likely that a most voters would approve.
Nationalist parties and other pro-unification groups claim this point is approaching, and a organisation named Ireland’s Future has rallied support, but authorities in Dublin and London and pro-UK factions downplay the possibility, making it uncertain whether or when there might be a national vote.
Lack of Serious Debate
Partisan language supporting and opposing unification has hidden the shortage of substantive discussion, stated McBride.
"Many are for or against the idea but the detailed consideration which could extend past that to make it possible hasn't for the most part happened. Much has occurred in academia but hardly any government figures or campaigners seek to involve themselves even with the basics. For instance, what sort of state should be desired? Centralised? Decentralised?"
Book's Approach
In the volume, no writer advocates unification or the status quo. They composes two essays that seek neutrality in laying out the rationale for a unified Ireland and the rationale opposing it, assembling economic and societal statistics, previous instances and governmental frameworks.
Discussions encompass identity markers, taxes, healthcare systems, elderly benefits, public liabilities and the danger of pro-UK militancy. The objective is to inform and provoke discussion.
"Considerable attention exists in the issue but there has not yet occurred a discussion," stated O’Toole. "Discussion implies an recognition of the idea that there could be good arguments on either side."
Parallel Votes
A referendum in Northern Ireland would simultaneously prompt one in the republic, where the electorate report they support unity but refuse paying higher taxes or adopting a new flag to reflect pro-UK communities' British culture.
"Authorities in Dublin does need to work out what the offer from pro-unification movements is beyond just saying: 'We want a unified Ireland and we love you'," remarked the commentator.
Probability of Public Vote
The journalist considers a referendum in his generation is possible and that it may take place abruptly. "You could have just a mad or a ill-advised or a incompetent official who declares: 'Let's just do this and resolve it.'"
Both pro-unification advocates and unionists have credible, justified perspectives, he commented. "One side will prevail on this issue and somebody will ultimately be defeated but both parties has got something to learn from the other's positions."
Call for More Extensive Dialogue
Westminster needed to participate in the debate, urged O’Toole. "This involves the United Kingdom. It's a British issue equally as it is an Irish question."
